The Next 6 Months

What's converging right now — not predictions, just what the data shows.

Last updated: March 26, 2026

Several independent climate signals are converging at the same time. None of this is speculation about the future — these are observations, measurements, and model outputs that describe what is already underway or developing. We're presenting them together because their combined effect matters more than any single signal alone.

Record March Heat Across the US

HAPPENING NOW

In March 2026, an unprecedented heat wave struck the United States. Not "warm for March" — record-shattering, model-breaking heat across 14 states.

Denver hit temperatures matching its June averages — on the first day of spring. The Sky Lab, Mar 21 2026
102°F recorded in suburban California. In March. Humidity dropped to 5-6% — drier than the Sahara Desert. The Sky Lab, Mar 21 2026
Weather models underestimated actual temperatures by 2-3°F consistently — a phenomenon called "model drift," suggesting the models are calibrated to a climate that may no longer exist. The Sky Lab, Mar 21 2026
Mid-level atmospheric heights exceeded the 99th percentile — a statistical rarity indicating a heat trap over the US. The Sky Lab, Mar 21 2026
The jet stream entered a "highly amplified" configuration with blocking patterns that stalled the heat in place. The Arctic amplification hypothesis suggests a warming Arctic is weakening the jet stream, making these blocking events more likely. The Sky Lab, Mar 21 2026
This happened under ENSO-neutral conditions — meaning no El Nino was amplifying the heat. This was the baseline. The Sky Lab, Mar 21 2026

The heat wave happened without El Nino. What happens when El Nino arrives?

El Nino Developing — Possibly a "Super" One

DEVELOPING

Multiple climate models are predicting a shift from the current La Nina cooling phase to El Nino — a pattern that adds heat on top of the existing warming trend. Some models suggest this could be a "super" El Nino event.

Several independent climate models predict a shift from La Nina to El Nino in the coming months, with some indicating a possible "super El Nino." Paul Beckwith citing James Hansen, Mar 21 2026
The La Nina event is expected to end by March 2026, followed by ENSO-neutral conditions before El Nino develops. Paul Beckwith, Jan 15 2026
For context: the record warm years of 2023 and 2024 were influenced by a strong El Nino. The March 2026 heat happened without El Nino — under neutral conditions. Paul Beckwith, Jan 15 2026; The Sky Lab, Mar 21 2026
A super El Nino would cause more severe climate disruptions than a normal El Nino — amplifying heat waves, drought, wildfire conditions, and extreme precipitation patterns globally. Paul Beckwith citing Hansen, Mar 21 2026

Why would the effects be worse than previous El Ninos?

Earth Lost Its "Parasol" — Warming Is Accelerating

CONFIRMED

The planet's accidental cooling mechanism — aerosol pollution from shipping and industry — has been rapidly declining since 2020. The science calls this "unmasking" the true warming rate.

The rate of global warming has accelerated from 0.2°C per decade (1970s) to 0.35°C per decade now, according to a new peer-reviewed study by Ramsdorf and Foster. Ramsdorf & Foster, Geophysical Research Letters, 2026
James Hansen's analysis puts it even higher: 0.41°C per decade since 2015. James Hansen, cited by Paul Beckwith, Mar 2026
Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) has more than doubled in the past two decades — the planet is absorbing energy equivalent to 18 times total human energy use. Institute and Faculty of Actuaries / University of Exeter, Mar 2026
Shipping fuel regulations since 2020 have drastically reduced sulfur emissions, removing aerosol particles that were reflecting sunlight. Ship tracks (clouds from exhaust) are visibly disappearing. Earth's albedo (reflectivity) is dropping. Just Have a Think, Mar 8 2026
The IFoA (Institute and Faculty of Actuaries) warns that 2°C could be breached before 2050 — decades earlier than mainstream IPCC scenarios project — even if emissions begin to fall. IFoA / University of Exeter / Climate Crisis Advisory Group, Mar 2026
With over 98% confidence, the last decade has seen faster warming than any previous decade in the instrumental record. Ramsdorf & Foster, Geophysical Research Letters, 2026

These signals don't exist in isolation.

The Bigger Picture: What's Shifting Underneath

ONGOING

Behind the immediate signals, several longer-term systems are showing signs of stress or change.

Antarctic sea ice experienced a dramatic decline since 2015 — losing an area 1-2x the size of Greenland in a matter of months. One measurement reached 7 standard deviations from the mean (1 in 700 billion probability). Researchers believe this represents a permanent tipping point. PBS Terra, Mar 19 2026
The Gulf Stream has shifted northward ~50km in the past 30 years. A new high-resolution climate model found that a 200km shift precedes AMOC (Atlantic current system) collapse within 2-3 decades. The observed shift is consistent with pre-collapse behavior. Multiple studies, Mar 2026; Paul Beckwith, Mar 14 2026
Greenland's ice sheet has lost mass for the 29th consecutive year and has entered what scientists describe as "irreversible long-term decline" due to multiple reinforcing feedbacks. Jason Box, Mar 26 2026
Earth system models have been overestimating how much CO2 plants can absorb (the "CO2 fertilization effect") by about 11%, due to misrepresenting nitrogen availability. The land carbon sink is weaker than projected. Just Have a Think, Mar 15 2026
The Norwegian Atlantic current is carrying more heat into the Arctic because transit times have halved (from 9-12 months to 3-6 months) and the warming atmosphere reduces heat loss from the ocean. Peer-reviewed study, 30 years data; Paul Beckwith, Jan 7 2026
CO2 is at ~426 ppm — 53% above pre-industrial levels. 2024 saw a 3.7 ppm annual increase, the highest recorded. Methane and nitrous oxide also at all-time highs. Paul Beckwith citing NOAA/NASA/Copernicus, Jan 15 2026

What this page is and isn't: This is a summary of current observations and published science, presented together so you can see how they relate. We are not predicting what will happen this summer. We are showing what is already measured, what models are projecting, and what signals the scientific community is watching. Every data point above has a named source. The full entries, with complete context and citations, are in the Climate Fact DB.